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In Vitro derived, renewable Cancer Cell models of known genotype
Est. Market Size - $1.4 B.
PRODUCT CONSTITUENT
These comments are derived from personal observation of stem cell growth in vitro cell culture.
One method to guarantee that the stem cells in the culture dish are stem cells is to let them grow past confluence.
By definition, if the cells lack contact inhibition abilities, the cells are either cancer cells or stem cells. The major difference is that stem cells maintain the ability to differentiate in the presence of specific growth factors and when placed into a mammalian host. Cancer cells do not. Cancer cells have lost the ability to differentiate. They just grow.
By personal observation, I have seen that by about the fifth pass past confluence, stem cells lose their ability to differentiate. If you don’t test them for differentiation, continued passage of these “supposed stem cells” will only result in a cell type that acts like a cancer cell.
A cancer cell in vitro has been generated.
This observation explains the unpredictability of the stem cell therapeutic protocols. Sometimes they work; sometimes they don’t. It seemly depends upon the number of passages through confluence the therapeutic cells had experienced. More that five passages and failure is guaranteed.
See the process of making Adult-derived stems in the previous sections. You can make stem cells from any one and thus any genotype. You grow the genotyped stem cells past the fifth confluence and then you have a renewal cancer cell model to sell.
Potential Revenues
Because of the complexity of the Drug Discovery market place determining the revenue stream generated by this market becomes equally complex and overlapping. The following estimates and breakdowns have been extracted from report, marketing articles and annual reports.
The existing primary and secondary screening processes in drug discovery have been isolated and broken out to be just about equal in size for the year 2003.
Primary Screen $610.5M Secondary screen $667.5M
These figures represent mostly the reagents and supplies consumed by these processes. The instrumentation utilized in this process is considered in capital equipment budgets.
The estimates of the general cellular assay market include both hand done and automated tests used for both the research market as well as the drug discovery process. The cellular assays market is expected to have an AAGR of 8.3% for the next few years. In dollars for a world wide market it was $470M in 2004 to grow to an estimated $700M by 2009.
The break down by country for these revenues shows the USA providing the majority of utilization.
Country % USA 52 Europe 30 Japan 15 ROW 3
Furthering the complexity the existing High-Content Screening Market has been broken out. It gets further segmented
High-Content Screening (HCS) Market 2002 In millions 2003 2004 Hardware $40 $100 Software $34 $75 Supplies $239 $273
By 2006 the market estimate for HCS is reported to be $886M.
To pull these figures together a little the following table made estimates specifically on the consumables and services for a cell-based, high throughput service.
Cell-based Consumables & HTS Services Market Estimates
Year $$$ 2004 $700M 2005 $875M 2006 $1,100M
These estimates were complied from: ING Barings Biotechnology Market Report (1999) Accenture Industry Report (2000) D&MD Market Report (2001)
Under any circumstances there is an estimated AAGR of 15 – 20% for all segments of this complex market place.
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